This past November proved that audiences are still more than willing to flock to theaters if it means visiting the Marvel Cinematic Universe, the Wizarding World (even without its most famous character), and high-quality family entertainment (Moana,Trolls). Unfortunately, outside of the major awards contenders, audiences seemed less inclined to check out more adult-oriented entertainment, asAllied,Rules Don’t Apply, andBleed for Thiscame in well under modest expectations.
December tends to be one of the highest grossing months of the year as kids are off from school and families head to multiplexes in search of entertainment, leaving lots of money to be spread across several films. Barring some level of ridiculous controversy,Rogue One: A Star Wars Storywill likely be the highest grossing film of the month, butPassengers,Sing, andWhy Him?also seem poised for solid returns.
Incarnate – December 2 (High Top Releasing)
Historically, the weekend after Thanksgiving tends to be a bit of a movie dead zone, typically with one under-performing wide release each year. Last December proved to be a bit of an exception, however, with the horror filmKrampusexceeding expectations, and then going on to gross a strong $42.7 million. But will fellow horror filmIncarnatefollow in its footsteps?
It’s tough to say. Though the genre has had a few misfires, possession and exorcism remain popular in horror films, andIncarnatehas a genuinely frightening trailer and should appeal to fans ofAaron Eckhart. The actor has been a part of several successful projects, includingThe Dark Knightand this year’sSully, but the films that he’s headlined, such asI, Frankenstein, have typically struggled at the box office.
Although directorBrad Peytonis typically known for more mainstream blockbusters (San Andreas,Journey to the Center of the Earth), he has a strong visual sense which appears to be on full display inIncarnate. Though a gross anywhere near that of this summer’sLights OutorDon’t Breatheseems unlikely, this should at the very least be grossing well aboveThe Pyramid($2.7 million), released during the same period two years ago.
Office Christmas Party – December 9 (Paramount)
Working inOffice Christmas Party’sfavor is a talented and recognizable cast (Jason Bateman,T.J. Miller,Kate McKinnon, andJennifer Aniston), some very funny trailers, and a nicely timed holiday release date. It also doesn’t hurt thatOffice Christmas Partywill have comedy audiences to itself untilWhy Him?arrives two weeks later.
R-rated films whose plots are centered on a large party have had a surprisingly strong streak at the box office in recent years. Last year’sSistersfor example successfully played as counter programming toStar Wars: The Force Awakensand ultimately grossed $87.0 million. On the younger and arguably more juvenile side, found-footage filmProject Xalso became a moderate hit with $54.7 million.
Sistersof course had the hugely popular duo ofAmy PoehlerandTina Feyheadlining, andProject Xwas no doubt boosted by the popularity of found footage at the time of its release. However, if the film ends up being as funny as its trailers look, this should at least be getting past last winter’s fellow R-rated holiday comedyThe Night Before($43.0 million).
Collateral Beauty – December 16 (Warner Bros.)
As popular a star as he is,Will Smithhas had a surprisingly spotty track record when it comes to dramas.The Pursuit of Happynesswas a major success with $163.5 million, butAli,Concussion, andThe Legend of Baggar Vanceare among his lowest grossing films.
Seven Pounds(another Will Smith drama) in many ways bears similarities toCollateral Beauty, including the mid-December release date, the strong cast, and the plot revolving around Smith’s character seeking redemption after experiencing a major loss. Unfortunately,Seven Poundswas critically panned, holding a 27% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and while it wasn’t exactly a “flop” at $69.9 million against a $55 million budget, it was still viewed as a disappointment.
Because reviews forCollateral Beautyare not yet available, it’s difficult to say how audiences and critics will react to the film. DirectorDavid FrankelhasThe Devil Wears PradaandHope Springson his resume, which would seem to indicate that critical reception forCollateral Beautymay be quite high. However, the drama landscape this December is the most competitive it’s been in recent memory, and given thatCollateral Beautydoes not appear to be a major awards contender, a gross around that ofSeven Poundsseems likely.
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – December 16 (Disney)
You’d be hard pressed to find someone who didn’t seeStar Wars: The Force Awakenslast winter, which blew past even the most optimistic expectations and set a new domestic box office record of $936.6 million. Its $2 billion worldwide gross made it abundantly clear moviegoers are still interested in seeingStar Warsfilms, but will they turn up in droves the same way for a prequel?
Although the term “prequel” tends to generate a great deal of scorn in theStar Warsuniverse,The Force Awakenshelped reinstate goodwill for the franchise and its new ownership under Disney and producerKathleen Kennedy. Unlike a film about what Anakin Skywalker was like as an 8-year-old,Rogue Oneactually tells an interesting story, dealing with a small group of rebels leading a heist to steal plans for the Death Star.
Prequels by design face an uphill battle, as the general ending of the film is already understood by anyone who has seenA New Hope. To help combat this, Disney has assembled an impressive cast that includesFelicity Jones,Forest Whitaker, andBen Mendelsohn, and likeThe Force Awakens,Rogue Onehas an aggressive marketing campaign and excellent trailers, which have even included a glimpse at Darth Vader.
Reports surfaced this summer that the studio was unhappy with theRogue Onecut, leading to extensive reshoots, but it seems unlikely that this would discourage regular moviegoers. A gross anywhere near that ofThe Force Awakensis unlikely, butRogue Oneshould nonetheless become one of the highest grossing domestic releases of all time.
Passengers – December 21 (Sony)
Continuing the recent trend of big-budget films featuring people being lost in space (Gravity,The Martian),PassengersstarsJennifer LawrenceandChris Prattas two people that wake up 90 years early during a 120-year journey to a new planet.
Though there has been recent talk that Hollywood is running out of movie stars with significant box office drawing power, one cannot discount the combined potential of Lawrence and Pratt starring in a film together. In addition to starring in two of the biggest film franchises of the last five years, Jennifer Lawrence has also accumulated four Oscar nominations in six years, winning once forSilver Linings Playbook. Since August of 2014, Pratt has starred in three films, two of which grossed over $300 million at the domestic box office.
Romantic thrillers featuring two major stars have not always been a home run at the box office. Fellow December releaseThe Tourist, starringAngelina JolieandJohnny Depp, came in well under expectations in 2010, with a $67.6 million domestic gross. The success of the aforementionedGravityandThe Martian, however, prove that audiences will turn out in droves for a film that takes place predominantly in outer space if said film turns out to be good, which given directorMorten Tyldum’srecent track record (The Imitation Game), seems likely. A gross not too far belowThe Martian($228.4 million) should be within reach.
Sing – December 21 (Universal)
Given the success of original propertyThe Secret Life of Pets, which grossed a jaw-dropping $873.5 million worldwide, it would seem unwise to think of Illumination Entertainment as a second-rate animation house, and it now feels to be in the same ballpark as DreamWorks and Pixar.
Though it is without an adorable puppy as the main character, Illumination’s latest offering appears to have all of the other ingredients of being a huge hit. It features a talented voice cast that includesMatthew McConaughey,Reese Witherspoon, andScarlett Johansson, excellent animation, and, judging from its trailers, catchy songs. After the success ofMoanaandTrolls, it’s becoming clear that families are not tiring of animated musicals.
This is also surprisingly the only Christmas release targeted at children. Although some families will also be seeingRogue One, those with younger children will likely be flocking toSing. Reception out of its premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival was mostly positive, and assuming that time of release reviews follow suit, this should be yet another hit for Illumination.
Why Him? – December 23 (Fox)
With the massive number of awards contenders and would-be blockbusters released in December, Christmas weekend tends to be a strong slot for a broad comedy looking to provide some counter programming for moviegoers seeking something lighter. Recognizing this, Fox appears to have set upWhy Him?for a great deal of success.
Last Christmas,Daddy’s Homesurpassed all reasonable expectations and grossed a huge $150.3 million, despite poor reviews from critics. That film had the benefit of a PG-13 rating, as well asMark WahlbergandWill Ferrellheadlining, which is a tough combination to match. However, bothBryan CranstonandJames Francofans tend to skew more on the adult side, making the R rating seem like an appropriate fit.
In addition to its well-liked leads,Why Him?also benefits from a premise that is likely relatable to quite a few parents (discovering that your daughter’s new boyfriend is a complete nightmare), genuinely funny trailers, and a lack of competition for comedic audiences. Although it was a very different kind of comedy,The Wolf of Wall Street’sfinal $116.9 million gross seems like a realistic possibility.
Fences – December 25 (Paramount)
Fencesappears to be the only serious Oscar contender this month that is foregoing a platform release followed by an expansion. This strategy makes sense forFences, in large part because of its producer, director, and starDenzel Washington.
Fencesmarks the first time since 2012 that Washington has appeared in a non-action film, when he starred inFlight. Though he is mostly known for his roles in action films (this fall’sThe Magnificent Seven, for example, grossed $92.9 million),Flightmanaged to gross $93.7 million, further proving that his appeal extends to a broader audience.
Though it looks like far from comfortable viewing, the trailers for the film are undeniably powerful, and make it look extremely likely thatFencesis on track for a few Golden Globe and Oscar nominations.Fencesis also adapted from the award winning play, and given the largely positive reactions to pre-screenings, it seems likely that fans of the property will turn up for the big screen version. Although quite a bit depends ultimately on its awards attention,Fencesseems poised to at least end up around fellow Denzel family dramaJohn Q.($71.7 million).
Studio Projection for December:
As stated above,Rogue Oneseems poised to become by far the highest grossing film of December. Due to the surprisingly low number of wide releases this month, Disney will once again take the crown, capping off a massive, record-breaking year for the studio.
