Let’s be honest, this year’s Oscars are weird. The films that are nominated are worthy to be sure, and despite everything 2020 turned outsome really terrific movies, but there’s a strange “oh that’s still happening?” quality to the Academy Awards this year. One reason is because the season was extended so significantly – usually the Oscars are in February or March, this year they’re almost nearly in May. And another is, despite the fact that the majority of the Best Picture nominees are readily available on demand or on a streaming service, it feels like the general public has seen very few of them.
And yet, it’s still The Oscars. And having covered awards season professionally for nearly a decade now, I’ve still had my eye on the contenders throughout the last few (very long) months. Which means I’ve got some Oscar predictions to share in all categories. Some of these feel like they’ve been sewn up all season long, while others feel completely up in the air. Given how this past year has gone we could be in for some significant surprises, and of course there’s also the question of how the telecast – which is assembling a number of nominees in an outdoor location and keeping Zoom acceptance speeches to a minimum – will go.
With all that being said, let’s get into it. Here are my final Oscar predictions for the 2021 ceremony, which airs live on ABC on Sunday, April 25th.
Best Picture
Will Win:Nomadland
Could Win:Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win:Nomadland
Should Have Been Nominated:Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
This one really feels like a done deal, and yet given how strange this past year has been – and how surprises likeMoonlightandParasitehave happened in the past – there’s still a tiny chance things could go a different way.Nomadlandhas been the frontrunner ever since it debuted at the Toronto International Film Festival, and with both the PGA and DGA awards in hand, it is theheavyfavorite to win. But there are some thoughts bubbling that perhapsThe Trial of the Chicago 7could pull off an upset.Aaron Sorkin’s film is more in the traditional mode of a Best Picture winner, like aGreen BookorSpotlight, whereas the docudrama aspect ofNomadlandputs it more in the vein of aMoonlightorParasite. I think that works inNomadland’s favor and I’m not willing to go against the heavy odds here, so my gut saysNomadlandpulls out the W.
Best Director
Will Win:Chloe Zhao,Nomadland
Could Win:David Fincher,Mank
Should Win:Emerald Fennell,Promising Young Woman
Should Have Been Nominated:Regina King,One Night in Miami
This is the other sure-thing category, asChloe Zhaohas won every Best Director trophy under the sun. Moreover, her acceptance speeches have been lovely and gracious and charming – people want to see her win. She’d be only the second woman to ever win the Best Director Oscar, and the first woman of color to take that honor. If she wins, history will be made.
Best Actress
Will Win:Viola Davis,Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could Win:Carey Mulligan,Promising Young Woman
Should Win:Carey Mulligan,Promising Young Woman
Should Have Been Nominated:Yeri Han,Minari
Best Actress is one of the hardest categories to predict this year. At first it seemed likeFrances McDormandwas the frontrunner, but thenViola Davispulled ahead for her showstopping turn inMa Rainey’s Black Bottom. ThenPromising Young Womanhad a bit of a surge later in the game, and prognosticators turned their attention toCarey Mulliganas the presumed winner – until the SAG awards. That’s where Davis won the Best Actress trophy over Mulligan, and the pendulum shifted back to Davis. So will Mulligan make for a first-time winner, or will the trophy go to a previous winner like Davis or McDormand? I’m going with the SAG trend here, but also because Davis gives a really towering performance inMa Rainey’s Black Bottom.
Best Actor
Will Win:Chadwick Boseman,Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could Win:Anthony Hopkins,The Father
Should Win:Chadwick Boseman
Should Have Been Nominated:Delroy Lindo,Da 5 Bloods
It seems likely thatChadwick Bosemanwill win a posthumous Oscar for his tremendous performance inMa Rainey’s Back Bottom, and it will not be because he passed away tragically last year – it will be because he deserves it. Boseman bears his soul inGeorge C. Wolfe’s Netflix drama, and delivers a monologue that put my jaw on the ground. It’s a reminder that this actor had so much more to give. But if for some reason Boseman doesn’t win, look forAnthony Hopkinsto take the trophy for his incredible turn inThe Fatheras a man rattled with dementia. Hopkins took Best Actor at the BAFTAs in a bit of a surprise, which could potentially be a harbinger of an upset here.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win:Youn Yuh-jung,Minari
Could Win:Maria Bakalova,Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Should Win:Youn Yuh-jung
Should Have Been Nominated:Helena Zengel,News of the World
The supporting categories feel pretty sewn up.Youn Yuh-jungnot only won the SAG award and is wholly deserving for her work inMinari, but also gave an incredibly charming speech. If there’s a shocker perhapsMaria Bakalovacould sneak in, or maybe evenOlivia Colman. But I feel pretty good about Youn’s chances.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win:Daniel Kaluuya,Judas and the Black Messiah
Could Win:Paul Raci,Sound of Metal
Should Win:Daniel Kaluuya
Should Have Been Nominated:Bo Burnham,Promising Young Woman
As with Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor feels pretty certain as well.Daniel Kaluuyais mesmerizing as Fred Hampton inJudas and the Black Messiah, and coming off a somewhat surprise (yet completely deserving) Best Actor nomination forGet Outhe’s quickly becoming an Academy favorite. This one will be well-deserved, but if it doesn’t go to Kaluuya, I would not be mad to seePaul Raciwin for his emotional performance inSound of Metal.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win:Promising Young Woman
Could Win:The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win:Promising Young Woman
Should Have Been Nominated:Palm Springs
The Best Original Screenplay category, in recent years, has been where the Academy members like to award ambitious and left-of-center work. Ever sinceHertook the prize over the favoriteAmerican Hustle, there’s been a bit of a trend of progressive or boundary-pushing films winning here, which is why I’m going with the tonal tight-rope walk that isEmerald Fennell’sPromising Young WomanoverAaron Sorkin’sTrial of the Chicago 7here. It also feels like, with so many nominations forPromising Young Woman, this is an easy place for voters to show their love for the film.
RELATED:Why ‘Promising Young Woman’ Isn’t Revenge Fantasy; It’s Revenge Reality
Best Adapted Screenplay
Could Win:The Father
Should Have Been Nominated:News of the World
This one feels like a bit of a toss-up, but I’m erring on the side of love forNomadlandtrickling down to other categories as well – even if the film itself feels a bit improvisational at times. But don’t be shocked ifThe Fathertakes this one for the adaptation ofFlorian Zeller’s play.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win:Soul
Could Win:Wolfwalkers
Should Win:Wolfwalkers
Should Have Been Nominated:Trolls: World Tour
It should beWolfwalkers, but betting against Pixar in this category is a big mistake.
Best International Film
Will Win:Another Round
Could Win:Collective
Should Win:Collective
The easy availability ofAnother Roundon Hulu can only have helped the film’s chances here, but a part of me would love to see the brilliant documentaryCollectivetake this one.
