Senior ProducerPerri Nemiroffis keeping you up to date on the leading contenders for 2024’s Oscar for Best Actress based on her knowledge of industry trends and whispers. Check in for updates because just when you think you’ve got the race figured out, the game changes.
Here’s where things stand as of February 24th, 2024:
If you were eager to see an acting Oscar race heat up, you got your wish!
AfterLily Gladstonewas snubbed by BAFTA, not even securing a nomination whileEmma Stonetook home that win, it appeared as though Best Actress was no longer a “Battle of the Stones,” rather, a race with a very clear frontrunner. The Screen Actors Guild Awards just changed that.
In one of the biggest surprises of the night, Gladstone, not Stone, claimed the win for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role for her work inKillers of the Flower Moon.
The BAFTAs omission was a pretty significant hiccup for her Oscar win chances, but otherwise, she was cruising through awards season. She won Best Actress in a Motion Picture Drama at the Golden Globes, the National Board of Review named her Best Actress, and she scooped up loads of critics organization accolades over the past few months. On top of that, Gladstone made history with her Oscar nomination, becoming the first Native American to be nominated for Best Actress at the Academy Awards. She’s a scene-stealer inKillers of the Flower Moonopposite industry heavyweights likeLeonardo DiCaprioandRobert DeNiro, has racked up a wildly impressive list of nominations and wins, and also continues to make the most of her time in the spotlight as we near the Oscars. Topping all of that off with a SAG win is a big deal in this Oscar race.
Stone’s loss at the Screen Actors Guild Awards is certainly a bit of a setback, but she’s still a formidable force in the category. Her work as as Bella Baxter in theYorgos Lanthimos-directed film is nothing short of jaw dropping. Something always feels a bit off when comparing performances in drastically different movies, but it’s also hard to imagine someone walking away fromPoor Thingswithout being utterly floored by how Stone gives every ounce of herself to that role. It’s a true performance feat requiring Stone to take her curious character on a high-speed coming-of-age journey. When you look at where Bella starts and where she ends up, it shouldn’t be possible in a mere 141 minutes, but Stone does it.
Had Stone won the SAG Award, she would have become the runaway favorite in the category. But, now that Gladstone has the SAG win and Stone has the BAFTA, among other accolades, Best Actress will be one of the most exciting Oscar battles to watch on March 10th. I’m still leaning Stone by a hair, but anything can happen.
Image via Searchlight Pictures
The race between Stone and Gladstone tightening also adds another very exciting potential wrinkle to the competition. What if the two split the votes and leave the door open for someone else to emerge victorious? Of the remaining nominees -Annette BeningforNyad,Carey MulliganforMaestro, andSandra HüllerforAnatomy of a Fall- I see it as an opportunity for Hüller in particular to come out on top. It was already abundantly clear thatAnatomy of a Fallhad a good deal of support going into Oscar nominations morning, but when it was announced in five categories, it became undeniable that there was even more support for the film from Academy members than most expected. If anyone tops Stone and Gladstone, I’m betting it’s Hüller.
And while Bening and Mulligan both give phenomenal performances inNyadandMaestrorespectively, they seem far out of win range this season. Given Bening andJodie Foster’s nominations, clearly the Academy is behindNyad, but the film didn’t consume nearly as much of the spotlight as heavy hitters likePoor ThingsandKillers of the Flower Moon. Not only doesMaestrofind itself struggling with that same issue, but also, the mixed response to the Netflix release didn’t help Mulligan’s chances much either.
Most Likely to Win Best Actress:
1. Emma Stone —Poor Things
Buy Tickets
2. Lily Gladstone —Killers of the Flower Moon
Watch on Apple TV
3. Sandra Hüller —Anatomy of a Fall
4. Carey Mulligan —Maestro
Watch on Netflix
5. Annette Bening —Nyad
For predictions covering all the major categories,visit our complete Oscar prospectus hereand keep coming back. This race is only just beginning.
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