What a summer. The first half was dominated by the talk of sequelitis doom. After some major sequels opened in May and early June to disappointing returns the industry and entertainment media was obsessed with the idea that audiences were looking for something new. ThenTheConjuring 2andFinding Doryopened and those naysayers quieted for a bit as clearly the quality of the sequels had something to do with their performance.
The second half of the summer season featured some major releases that dishearteningly underperformed and a few hits only a select few predicted (Bad Moms, Lights Out, Don’t Breathe). Overall though 2016 didn’t have the record setting box office we saw just a year ago withJurassic Park,Avengers: Age of Ultron,Inside OutandMinions, among others, setting fireworks off around the world. No one was saying movies were over then, where they?
Before we take a look back at the summer of 2015 here are three important facts you should take into account when looking at theatrical receipts for a movie.
Now, keeping that in mind let’s take a deep dive into the hits and misses, shall we?
Horror Movies: Hollywood’s Summer Success Stories
It used to be that no one wanted to release a horror movie in the summer. Sure, there would be a surprise hit or two such asThe Blair Witch ProjectorFreddy vs. Jason, but those were few and far between. You only released a horror flick in the summer if it didn’t play and you wanted to dump it in August to try and cut your losses. Horror usually made its money in the fall before Halloween or in the middle of winter after the holiday movie season winds down. Those two windows are still great times to open these flicks, but this summer proved Hollywood has learned that horror plays when its sunny out. Universal’sThe Purge: Election Year($79 million domestic, $105.6 million global), the thirdPurgefilm to open in the summer, became the franchise’s highest grossing installment to date. Warner Bros.’The Conjuring 2duplicated its predecessors’ summer success taking in $102 million domestic and $319 global (almost exactly what the original earned three years ago). Indie releaseThe Darknessearned its $4 million budget back with a $10 million take and Screen Gems hit a home run with the critically acclaimedDon’t Breathewhich opened to $26.1 million off just a $9.9 million production budget. The biggest surprise of the summer frame though has to beLights Outwith $65.4 million stateside and $125.6 million around the world. The New Line production cost just $4.4 million making it one of the most profitable pictures of 2016 overall. It goes without saying Hollywood won’t hesitate to release even more horror flicks next season.
The Warner Bros. Comeback No One Is Writing About
2015 was not a great year for Warner Bros. It’s highest grossing flick of the year (and the summer) wasSan Andreaswhich earned just $473.9 million worldwide and it was the first time in 15 years that the venerable studio didn’t release a $200 million grosser domestically. Warner’s 2016 isn’t on par with the eye-brow raising grosses Disney is pulling off on a regular basis or the history making 12 months Universal Studios experienced last year. It has, however, released an unexpected string of profitable flicks that few in the media are giving them credit for.
Admittedly, the summer got off to a rocky start as critics’ favoriteThe Nice Guysdisappointed with just $36 million, but the studio only had U.S. rights and wasn’t on the hook for a majority of its $50 million prod budget. And, frankly, It’s been pretty smooth sailing ever since. The romanceMe Before Youcost just $20 million to make, but has earned an unexpected $196 million worldwide. We’ve already noted the success ofThe Conjuring 2andLight’s Out, butDwanye JohnsonandKevin Hart’sCentral Intelligencebecame the comedy hit of the summer with $127.1 million in the U.S. and $212 million globally off just a $50 million budget (can you say new franchise?). The studio even surprised industry analysts who thoughtThe Legend of Tarzanwas going to be one of the biggest bombs of the year. With $352 million worldwide off a massive $185 million production budget it will be decades beforeDavid Yates’ passion project gets in to the black, but no one ever believed it could gross $125 million in the U.S. That marketing success was almost a win in itself. Unfortunately, there is one other eye sore:War Dogs. With just $42.6 million global to date it doesn’t look likeTodd Phillips' dramedy will ever make back its $50 million negative cost. And, of course, there’sSuicide Squad. It wasn’t the mega-blockbuster the studio hoped for, but it wasn’t a bomb either (more on that later).
Disney Simply Can’t Lose…or Can They?
Walt Disney Studios has practically been printing money over the past few years thanks to hit after hit from Marvel Studios, Pixar, its Disney Animation Studios and, more recently, Lucasfilm. 2016 already provided unexpected smashes withZootopiaandThe Jungle Bookand summer started off strongly withAvengers 3, er,Captain America: Civil Wargrossing $407 million stateside and $1.15 billion around he world. Pixar also delivered the highly anticipatedFinding Dorywith a fantastic $479.6 million and $929.1 million globally. The Disney marketing machine that stretches from television to theme parks is too good to fail, right?
Well, yes and no. The studio released two of its biggest misfires in quite awhile this summer withAlice Through the Looking Glass($294 million global, $170 million prod budget) andSteven Spielberg’s first real bomb in two decades,The BFG($153 million global, $140 million prod budget). Neither film was very good, but that doesn’t explain why the exceptionalPete’s Dragonhas also underperformed. Even with a 71 on Metacritic, an 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and an A grade from Cinemascore, Disney hasn’t been able to fully sell it to families. The remake has only earned $54 million stateside and $74 million globally to date. With a number of major markets to go overseas it still has a shot to break even theatrically, but it isn’t the word of mouth hit many believed it would be. When the Disney marketing machine can’t make a hit out of a very good movie should there be a bit of self-reflection? Probably, but don’t cry too long for the Mouse House. They still have expected moneymakersDoctor Strange,MoanaandRogue One: A Star WarsStoryon the horizon.
STX took a massive hit with theMatthew McConaugheymisfireFree State of Jones, but ended up with the biggest word of mouth hit of the summer,Bad Moms. The studio positioned the R-rated comedy as the nextBridesmaids(even down to the same marketing color scheme) and when it hits $100 million Labor Day weekend it will have quadrupled its $23 million opening weekend. Frankly, for a wide release that’s almost unheard of these days.
‘Star Trek Beyond’ Isn’t the Summer Savior Paramount Was Hoping For
Paramount announced this month it was appointing two new execs as co-presidents of marketing while the former president was banished to run marketing for home entertainment. When this sort of shuffle happens its because the power brokers at the top of the chain are unhappy with the studios’ box office performance (of course it never seems to be the fault of those same top execs who greenlight the pictures that bombed in the first place). The fact Paramount made a change somewhere wasn’t that surprising. Outside of10 Cloverfield Laneand the recent mini-hitFlorence Foster Jones(an Oscar player that should stick in theaters for quite awhile), it’s been a god awful 2016. The summer was supposed to turn things around, but things only got worse.Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadowsearned half of what the original reboot made in 2014. Then againShadows’$242 million global cume wouldn’t have been a disaster if the picture hadn’t cost $135 million to make. Paramount thoughtStar Trekhad become a reliable franchise sinceJ.J. Abramsre-launched it in 2009, butStar Trek Beyond’s fate looks almost as troublesome asTMNT. There are sill a number of major international markets left to open such as China, Mexico, Brazil and Japan, but the $185 million sci-fi adventure has taken in just $95 million overseas so far. That’s less than half of whatStar Trek Into Darknessearned outside the U.S. three years ago. Moreover, it wasn’t as big a player stateside either grossing just $150 million which was off a staggering $78 million fromInto Darkness’sreturn. Unless, China surprises with a miraculous grossBeyondproves that even a well-receivedStar Trekflick needs a better marketing or story hook to get audiences to see it in a theater.
Kate Beckinsale Proves Amazon Studios’ Model Can Work
She’s finally escaped theUnderworldshadow. Trading skintight vinyl bodysuits for Victorian corsets,Kate Beckinsalesurprised many with a critically adored performance inWhit Stillman’sLove & Friendshipat Sundance this past January. What many didn’t expect, however, was for the Amazon Studios and Roadside Attractions release to become one of the biggest art house hits of the summer.Love & Friendshiphas earned $13.9 million in the U.S. off a $3.3 million production budget. That sort of profit margin is chump change to Amazon, but it proves their model of using different distributors for their releases can be successful. Of course,TheNeon Demon(released through Broad Green) was a complete disaster, but it’s not like Jeff Bezos noticed, right? The good news isLove & Friendshipand the upcomingManchester by the Seawill provide a ton of awards season love to truly put Amazon on the map as a significant industry player.
Zac Efron’s Summer of Declining Returns
He may have made Olympian Simone Biles’ summer, but it’s been a troublesome few months atZac Efron’s day job.Neighbors 2: Sorority Risingwas a disappointment for Universal taking in just $107 million global after the original earned $207 million worldwide just two years ago. Efron’s second summer comedy,Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, has grossed only $66 million global off a $33 million production budget.Mike and Davehave a few more international markets on its release schedule, but 20thCentury Fox won’t even break even on this one until ancillaries and even that is an optimistic forecast. Considering Efron has mostly starred in comedies the past two years (We Are Your Friendsexcluded) it might be in his best interest to branch out in other creative directions following the release ofBaywatchnext summer. Especially since that flick isn’t guaranteed to be a hit even with Dwayne Johnson in the mix (we’ve seen the CinemaCon footage, trust).
‘Independence Day: Resurgence’ Becomes the Poster Child for Waiting too Long to Greenlight a Sequel
Did America really want to revisit the nostalgia of the firstID4this past Fourth of July? It appears not so much. Twenty years after the first flick took home $306 million domestically,Resurgencebarely squeaked by the $100 million mark with $102.8 million in the U.S. TheRoland Emmerichmonstrosity did much better overseas ($279.4 million), but thanks to a massive marketing budget 20thCentury Fox shouldn’t expect to recoup its reported $165 million production budget any time soon. IfWill Smithreturned would it have made a difference at the box office? Likely, but the bigger issue is that audiences were more invested in going to see a sequel 10 or 15 years ago. Not so much in 2016.
Three Blockbusters that Weren’t so Big Back Home
It used to be that movies that bombed in the U.S. could then make money overseas and turn a profit all the time. With the advent of day and date releases and global word of mouth through social media that usually isn’t necessarily the case anymore. Except this summer turned into a time warp for three unique pictures. 20thCentury Fox’sIce Agefranchise has always done better internationally but the fifth installment –Collision Course– um, crashed in the U.S. with just $61.7 million to date ($100 million less than its predecessor). Overseas? Oh, just a profit making $305 million. Lionsgate’sNow You See Me 2did about half of the original’s $117 million domestic take grossing only $65 million. Overseas? Oh, just $258 million including an astounding $97 million in China.* And, of course, we have Universal and Legendary’sWarcraft.The media saw it as a bomb months before its release and in many ways they were correct. A $47 million domestic gross off a “reported” $160 million production budget is usually disastrous. Overseas? A much different story as the Duncan Jones CG fantasy earned a mammoth $386.3 million based mostly on $220 million from China alone. Of course, as we mentioned earlier, Chinese quota laws mean Hollywood films only return on average 25% of box office receipts as opposed to 45-50% in other markets. Still, it was enough to unexpectedly squeakWarcraftinto break-even status.
*It should be noted that Lionsgate often sells a significant portion of its foreign rights beforehand to cover as much of its production and domestic marketing costs as possible. It’s still unclear how that affected Now You See Me 2, but a third chapter is officially in the works so read into that what you will.
It’s very hard to spinPaul Feig’s reboot as a box office success. The $124 million U.S. gross is strong for a summer event flick, but that’s less than the under hypedThe Legend of Tarzanearned. The problem was that the $144 million budgeted action comedy took in just $92.6 million internationally. Yeah, unless it turns into a monster on other platforms a sequel seems like a longshot at best. The surprise for Sony Pictures is how well the rest of their summer went.Jodie Foster’sMoney Monsterwill eventually break even after a $93 million global tally off a reported $27 million production budget.The Shallowswas a major sleeper hit also taking in $93 million global, but off a more economical $17 million prod budget. Annapurna and Sony partnered on the $19 million adult animated comedySausage Partywhich is well on its way to making $100 million in the U.S. alone. And, as previously noted,Don’t Breatheis the last surprise hit of the summer. Maybe we should give Sony Pictures ChairmanTom Rothmansome credit for once?
